Stormy Seas

The political landscape is changing rapidly--even by the minute. Iraq is becoming even more dominant on the American center stage everyday. More candidates enter the 2008 political fray on a daily basis. Candidates surge and fall. The Democrats and Republicans pledge cooperation one day, and stab ruthlessly at each other the next. In this climate, how is one to make predictions about what will happen? Now seems as good a time as any to summarize some of the extrapolations that can be made from our current position. If nothing else it will be something we can look back at and laugh about what a misread these were on the situation.

The Democrats Will Take the White House in 2008


Anger over the war took a heavy toll on the GOP in the '06 primaries. With Iraq quickly becoming darn near the only issue that swing voters have in their sights it will not matter who the Republican candidate is. Just like the mayoral elections in St. Louis or Detroit or Chicago, the Democratic primary will be the real election. For the record, the history of the 1992 campaign tells us that appearances can be deceiving, as every talking head in the world though Bush 41 would be re-elected. Nevertheless, it looks like a Democratic White House is in the cards.


A conservative candidate will win the Republican nomination


John McCain's very uninspiring appearance on Meet the Press last week, combined with his already-troublesome-to-primary-voters image are battering the presumed front-runner. Though Giuliani's popularity is on the rise, he has worse image problems than McCain, and he knows it. He is campaigning fairly hard, but is very reluctant to jump into the race. Why? Probably because he understands better than anyone how the skeletons in his closet can hurt him. The stage is set for a Mit Romney or Mike Huckabee to ride a dark horse to the front of the pack, but one of them will need to do it soon, or else the front loaded primary season will kill them.


Divided government will lead to actual results


Perhaps the most optimistic of extrapolations, the Republican White House and Democratic Congress (combined with the impending presidential election) will force each side to produce meaningful, non-partisan legislation. Am I being naive in thinking this will happen? Probably, but I am hopeful.


The politicization of Iraq will get worse


Following the most optimistic projection with the least, the mainstream media has already turned their bias into two-thirds of all their news stories. Watching the Evening News is like watching an infomercial for the Democratic Party. They should report what is happening and not ignore the chaos in Iraq. But they should also not spend 15 minutes of their 30 minute show covering Democratic criticism of the war (I timed it, and that's almost how long it was on NBC the other day). We all know the Democrats are critical of the war. Cover it, but don't make it the sole basis of what you do. Some of the comparisons to Vietnam hold true for Iraq, and this one does for sure: the media will be a major influence in the direction of the war.


The challenges to America from abroad will continue to grow


Military challenges will come and go, but the economic challenges embodies in "globalization" will make the reality facing America ever more stark. We will have to adjust our educational systems, our trade relations, our immigration policies, our employment initiatives, and a host of other things to deal with the new world. Though this is the broadest of predictions, it will have major effects on politics and policy decisions. If the party in control, whichever it may be, acts like we are living in the old world, America will grow ever weaker.

We are indeed in a time of great change and great challenge. The next 21 months will be some of the most rocky and most entertaining in quite a long time. Things will indeed change, possible a lot. May they be for the better.