Hillary pt. 2 (Liabilities)

A week ago at this time Barack Obama was dominating the news. Now it is Hillary's turn. Yesterday we took a look at the assets Hillary Clinton brings with her in her bid for the presidency. It was an impressive list, which no doubt legitimizes her competition for front-runner status. But Hillary, like all other candidates, brings liabilities as well. Some are personal, some structural, and others historical. I will leave it up for comments as to whether her assets or her liabilities carry greater weight, and I welcome any thoughts on the matter. Without further ado, her liabilities:

• Hateability: One of Hillary's big assets is that she is a household name. That also serves as what is likely her biggest liability. Her unfavorability ratings, by many polls, have not dropped below 40% since 2005. That is unprecedented. Out of all the candidates for office, no one comes close. McCain's unfavorability is around 25%. Obama's is around 11%. The only person who has even mentioned a possible run whose unapproval ratings equal Hillary's are those of Newt Gingrich, who is roundly dismissed as "too unlikable". One could expect a number that high if she were a candidate running for re-election, when all the ire from the other side is directed solely on the candidate. But we are nowhere near that. In short, there is a major segment of America--and not just the conservative base--who has decided already that they won't vote for her.
• The Freakshow Lies in Wait: Since Hillary is so loved by many and so hated by many that there is even more incentive for the Freakshow that is the American political culture, and particularly the media, to hype/control/propagate stories that make her look bad. People click on articles about her. More people click when the story about her is "shocking" or "revealing" or "telling" or in some other way prone to work against her. The Freakshow wants her to explode.
  
  
• A Base Problem: This will not be as much of a liability in the general election, but the perception among the Radical Left like the Daily Kos is that she was way too cozy to President Bush for way too long. It took her forever to say that if she knew then what she knows now she wouldn't have voted for the War. But vote for the war she did, and she compounded that problem with her base by being very slow to retract support for it. Add that to the fact that they too can read her unfavorability numbers and one can start to hear the same whispers that accompanied Howard Dean in his hay day: "unelectable".
  
  
• History (The Scandals): Hillary's past is always a problem. To capture this problem, here's a quote I read in the book, The Way to Win:

  How did she make those enormous cattle futures profits? How did those long-missing billing records turn up in the White House? What role did she play in those infamous end-of-presidency pardons? What really happened with her staff and the indicted...fund-raising aide from her first campaign? What exactly is up with her marriage? And: pretty much everything about her brothers. (emphasis in original)

  And that doesn't even mention Whitewater (or Lewinsky). Speaking of Lewinsky...
  
  
• Bill: He may be the fundraiser-in-chief he may be the best strategist in the Democratic party, but he's a ticking time bomb that she can only hope doesn't go off until she is safely into a second term:
  • There are still (newer) allegations that he is not a one-woman man.
  • Though loved by many, he carries negative images with himself as well--the scandals and the more recent questions about his pre-9/11 terrorism dealings
  • His presence could create voter weariness among those who want something new
  • His presence keeps the questions about him and their personal life on the front-burner, thus keeping Hillary's message on the back-burner. Not what any candidate wants.
  • He overshadows her.
  
  
• Lack of Charisma: Hillary has incredible political skill. But she has no charisma. The larger the crowd and the more excited they get Hillary should get more inspiring. Sadly for her, she just comes off as shrill. One British paper put it best:

  She has the record, the position, the money, the support, the right hairstyle at last. Yet the only quality she cannot summon, however hard she works at it, is charm.

  The British can be blunt, but here it is true. Bush 43 is a horrible speaker, but when a candidate he did this well: he could be optimistic and deliver an applause line that made people want to applaud. Hillary makes people feel obligated to applaud. This is something that can't be taught. She can only hope her other assets outweigh this one.
  
  
• The Establishment Candidate: Contrasted with Barack, this one becomes clear: she represents what has been. She is the tried and true. While on one hand this is an asset, think about why Barack is so popular. He is new. He is a breath of fresh air. He is the anti-Hillary, and it has hurt her.
  
  
• Too Big for Her Own Good: Americans elect presidents who they like, but who they also think has a message/theme for their presidency. It is clear already what an Obama presidency would be about: hope. In 1999 Bush was pitching "restoring dignity to the White House". That was particularly important for him because by staying on message it took focus away from Bush 41. Hillary is always the story. She doesn't have a theme, and even if she did her persona might well overpower it. Her race is all about who she is, and this is a problem for any candidate, but particularly for one with as much baggage as Hillary.

To sum it up, Hillary has some image problems, and some non-image problems. Her image: Divider; 60s radical; Powerhungry; Cold; Uncharismatic. That's not saying she deserves those images, but they linger. Her non-images problems: Bill; ties to scandal; her sex; she is the establishment figure; she is hated like no other candidate. Will she overcome these? Do her assets outweigh them? These are what I submit for discussion.