Odd Years

[Editor's Note: Yesterday's edition of the VoterVault was the unfortunate victim of unforseen technical difficulties. Some employers (namely, mine) have decided to firewall the VoterVault. Much apologies for having to delay the first post of this New Year. End Editor's Note]

The politics of Presidential elections always works in yearly cycles. Each year brings a unique set of events, along with its own intrigue. Since our presidential elections are every four years, naturally it is a four-year cycle. Let's pretend, for the sake of clarity, that last year was a presidential election year, and in the four-year cycle this would be "year 1". The cycle would go as follows:

• Year 1: The "feeling out" of the new President. This would involve the implementation of his/her policies, and the counter-formation of attacks by the opposition party. If the now president is newly elected (not an incumbent, as the winner in 2008 is sure to be), this can be an extrodinarily interesting year. If, however, the Pres. is an incumbent, this is the most boring year in the cyle.
  
  
• Year 2: The Midterm Year. Here the voters can either stick it to the President by voting against his/her party, or affirm the job the Pres. is doing by supporting his/her party. Elections are always fun, so "Year 2" can range from mildly exciting to downright thrilling.
  
  
• Year 3: The Candidates Emerge. It is in year three that the slate of candidates formalizes. Serious candidates spend the majority of the year--particularly every waking moment of the summer--raising money. Serious candidates now need to have about $50 million dollars by the end of the the year to stay competitive. Just for reference, Giuliani hopes to raise $25 million by April 1^st.
  
  
• Year 4: The Big Dance. Obviously, this is the most exciting year in the whole process. It is the big prize in politics. You certainly know this, so I need not spell it out.

2007 is "Year 3". The main candidates have already begun to emerge, though only one is official. For the Dems the two frontrunners are Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, with John Edwards--the only official candidate--not far behind. They make up what I refer to as the Trifecta.

The GOP has only one front-runner, John McCain, with Giuliani not far behind. There are fringe candidates on the Left, but as of today they have needle-in-a-haystack odds. On the Right, however, there are real candidates who could de-throne McCain and certainly Giuliani.

Why the desparity between the parties? Simple. Hillary and Barack are liberals. McCain and Giuliani are moderates. Moderates lose primaries. That's pretty much a rule. Moderates make great legislators, but they make horrible presidential candidates. That is not to say that they would make horrible presidents. They would probably be very effective. But primary voters don't want great legislators. They don't want concensus-builders. They want the people who will fight for--and deliver--the policies they want.

Tune back in to the VoterVault tommorow as we will look a bit more in-depth at type of "year 3" 2007 could be. See you then.