Life in the Wilderness

Last night the electorate handed the Republicans a sweeping rebuke. I liked the way President Bush put it: "a thumpin'". As expected, the Democrats took control of the House of Representatives, taking 28 seats. Only the next few years will tell us if this was another 1994. What was more surprising was that they took the Senate. Heading into the night the polls indicated that all the Red Team needed was one of Missouri, Virginia, or Montana. They got blanked.

It would be nice if I could let myself believe what is very well possible--that the people didn't vote for the Dems, but against the Republicans. It would be nice to believe they voted against Bush and Iraq. Certainly possible. No...probable. In fact, that's probably true. So why can't I let myself believe it? Simple. Moving the country is like moving a cruise ship by swimming next to it and pushing it where you want it to go. Once it is going in one direction, it's not going the other way any time soon. To get less philosophical and more practical, it seems silly to think that John Q. Independent said "man I'm pissed at Bush. I'm so pissed. ARRRRG. I'm voting for a Democrat in the House. [vote cast]. Man, do I feel better. Ahhh. Now I can go back in '08 and vote my favorite GOPster back in." That's crap. What's more likely to happen is this: Dems spend the next two years beating the "we have to try to fix this mess the Republicans made for us" drum. When they don't get anything done they say, "man, this Republican mess was way worse than we thought". And the John Q. Independent, in his continued frustration with the war and Bush, vote again for their now-incumbent Democrat. It's Iraq, and it's not going away.

The GOP is now in the political wilderness, and they should probably make the place look comfortable, 'cause they're going to be there for a while.

On the bright side, it'd be easy for the Dems to blow this thing. If Pelosi acts like Pelosi, and Reid like Reid, the country will easily reject their radicalism in two years. However, I don't think they are that stupid. What we saw when they were in the minority was the real Pelosi and real Reid. What we are more likely to see in '07 (forget anything approaching controversial in '08) is the party that passed on Howard Dean in 2004 when they realized he couldn't win. It will be a party that plays to the emotional issues that seem to be steering the ship right now--health care, minimum wage, stem cell research, Iraq anger, and the like. Issues that can touch the heart strings. Issues you don't have to go about the ugly business of "explaining" or "justifying". Issues you can use to demonize your opposition with if they vote against you. The plan is simple: demonize Republicans. Make them unacceptable. Play to the heart, not the mind.

Bottom line: If they can resist the pull to MichaelMooreize their party, they will be in the driver's seat for a while. Anger and disenchantment with the Republicans will wane into complacency and lesser-of-two-evils-type-thinking.

Other thoughts:

• Is it a good sign when the rest of the world, which at best resents and at worst hates America celebrates our election results?
• The Republican Get Out the Vote (GOTV) effort is always lauded as an amazing enterprise. I am an active conservative. I've volunteer for campaigns within the last year. I always have yard signs. My gosh--I was offered a job on staff for my state's Senate race. I offered to volunteer. I called headquarters and asked for a sign. Total number of calls I received in the GOTV effort: 0.
• Rumsfeld is out. Would it have made a difference if 43 had accepted his resignation when he first offered it? We'll never know.