Leave Virginia Alone

Anyone with a passing knowledge of the Virginia Senate race knows the story. Macaca. That's the story. It's tempting to tell the whole story like this: "Why did Allen lose?" he asked. "Macaca." came the reply.

George Allen should have been among the safe seats the Red Team could count amongst their win column in 2006. That list should have gone; Mississippi, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, and Virginia. Allen was a popular ex-Governor in the state and a likely presidential contender for '08. Then it happened. Allen, with the wind at his back, polls looking outstanding, and his warm-up-for-the-white-house-race going well, ended his political career. In a moment of outright stupidity, it happened. In a moment when old-school politicking collided with the YouTube age, it happened. And it all came crashing down. He looked right at a minority--a minority from his opposition's camp--a minority pointing a camera at him--and he called him a name. Macaca. In the old world, rumors would have spread, his opponent would have demanded an apology, he probably would have chalked it up to a misunderstanding, he would have lost a percentage point, his opponent would have made a stink and possibly looked desperate, and Allen would have cruised to victory. But this isn't the old world. This is the YouTube world. Within no time flat, political junkies and then everyday folks were watching Virginia's incumbent Senator call a minority a name. Within days it was on the evening news. And it was over.

Of course, that's not the whole story.

If that were Allen's only gaffe, or if that were the only thing he had going against him, he would have survived pretty easily. Heck, even with all he had going against him he lost by all of .3 percentage points. So what was the straw that broke Allen's back? Let's do a quick rundown of all Allen had going against him:

• Bush
• Iraq
• Macaca
• Macaca leading allegations of racism from those in his past
• Bush
• Rather insensitive/uncouth remarks about Judaism when it was found his mother's family was Jewish
• He came off as a fundamentalist by pointing out sexual passages in his opponent's war novels
• Iraq
• His opponent was a moderate, thereby diffusing the always powerful tactic of "he's too liberal for Virginia"
• His opponent's son is deployed at present, thereby negating any "hawkish advantage" Allen may have had
• Bush and Iraq

Without Macaca Allen doesn't get accused of further racism, his mother's ancestry wouldn't have been an issue, and his opponent would have been too far behind in the polls for his moderation or his son's service to the country to have mattered. In elections, perception is reality. When it was perceived that Allen was unbeatable, Allen was unbeatable. When that perception was shattered by Macaca, the ceiling came crashing in on good ol' George Allen. It was a mess of his own making. It's a wonder he broke 40%.

Or was it?

Let's take a look at the Virginia county-by-county Senate race map.

This is a pretty typical Virginia map. Most of the state is red, with the blue being limited to the D.C. suburbs and the southeast part of the state. The big mama-jama is the county adjacent to D.C., Fairfax County. In Virginian politics it is the mothership. Like most metro areas in the country, the suburbs closest to the urban centers lean blue. To win in Virginia, or Missouri, or any other Redish state with one or two major metros, the Republican must limit his/her loses in those suburban areas. Allen was able to do that in 2000 when he ran against incumbent Charles Robb. That presidential-election-aided year Allen lost Fairfax County by only 4 points. He limited the damage and let rural Virginia bring him home. This year, Fairfax killed him. Check it out.

That killed Allen. Thumped him. Mangled him. Allen fell short in the overall election by only 8,000ish votes, but Fairfax county alone cost him eight times that amount.
One more thing is interesting to note about that table. In this non-presidentially-aided election year, Fairfax County registered a smaller percentage of the total number of votes than in 2000. This is super interesting because it means that Allen did even better in outstate Virginia in 2006 than he did in 2000. Yet he got smoked (assuming .3%=a smoking).

Conclusion: rural voters are willing to forgive almost anything a GOPster does to not have to vote Blue. In the suburbs it's simple: Iraq + Bush + Gaffes + Moderate Opposition = End of Allen.