Pomp and Pageantry

One of the unwritten rules of presidential politics is that you have to make a grand entrance. Obama did just that this past weekend. Standing the the shadow of Illinois' state capital, the junior Senator from Illinois invoked the spirit of Lincoln, and Lincoln's focus on unity. It was very well choreographed and a brilliant move for Barack, being both an African-American and a candidate from the Land of Lincoln.

Last December John Edwards made his grand enterance. He traveled to New Orleans and made the city's hardest-hit ward the backdrop for his candidacy. Comparing these two enterances is very interesting, and will give us something to look for in the next 3-5 official announcements that should be coming between now and summer.

There are a few rules that govern these announcement events that all serious candidates must follow:

• Rule #1: The place chosen for your announcment must cooralate to your message
• Rule #2:The image of you there should create a positive, uplifting feeling
• Rule #3: The whole of your announcement should generate a positive news cycle on your behalf

Based on these general rules, Obama's announcement was a huge success, and Edwards was poor.

Rule #1: The place chosen must cooralate to your message. Obama is framing his message as something like "hope and unity". Tying his announcement to the history of Lincoln played perfectly into that theme. Plus for Obama. Edwards also adheared to this rule, since his theme of "two Americas" draws attention to poverty. Nowhere else is that seen as clearly as New Orleans' Ninth Ward, where he made his announcment in the back yard of a Hurricane Katrina victim. Plus for Edwards.

Rule #2: The image of you there should create a positive, uplifting feeling. Here are two images of the candidates at their announcement ceremonies:With the state capital in the background, the huge crowd, and the tie to Lincoln, the images of Obama were wholly positive. Plus for Barack. What Edwards' image cleraly evokes is the emotions tied to Katrina. While there he tried to spin it as "I'm hear to help, and look at all these great people helping." Nevertheless, it evokes negative images. Minus for Edwards.

Rule #3: The whole of your announcement should create a positive news cycle. Obama was the news of the weekend, and it was almost without question a positive news cycle for him. Almost everything out of the Senator's mouth was of a positive tone. Plus for Obama. By contrast, it was almost impossible to generate excitement about a guy standing in the devestated area of New Orleans. The entire event was generally negative, about how America failed Katrina victims. Minus for Edwards.

In sum, Obama's announcement: +++; Edwards: +--.

No serious Republican has made an official announcement, as none has had the momentum to generate a positive news cycle with such an event. Hillary has not made hers yet. (Along those lines, she may have tried way too hard to recapture the attention of the media right after Barack announced his exploratory committee, for when she announced that she was forming hers she made the mistake of saying "I'm in it, and I'm in it to win it". By saying that she may well have lost the ability to build anticipation of a formal announcement like the other two members of the Trifecta made).

While all of this pomp and pagentry is generally silly, as it is almost entirely about appearances and not about who would make the best president, they do give us one major thing to look for: who knows how to play the game to win? There are lots of great leaders out there who would make wonderful presidents. Unfortunately, very few of them have the political skill to get elected. The announcement charade gives us a glimpse into who might have what it takes to run, produce, and win a nationwide campaign.