McCain obviously wants to be president. His exploratory committee has a website, in which he poses in a series of glamor shots like this one:
As we all know, McCain has some serious problems with the conservative base. He is a maverick, sides with the President on immigration, is a member of the Gang of 14 (the moderate group of Senators who compromised over judicial nominees), drafted the McCain-Feingold bill on campaign finance reform (which many see as an assault on the first amendment), refused to vote for the federal marriage amendment, and would not stump for the marriage amendment in his own state.Let's assume for one second that all these things and more will lead conservatives within the GOP to vote down McCain in the primaries. Who is the next in line?
Rudy Giuliani.
Giuliani has nearly as much star power as McCain. He has a solid public image. He is "America's Mayor". Rudy can run on his post-9/11 record as a strong leader. Close your eyes and you can envision his campaign commercials already: pictures of the city after 9/11 with Giuliani taking the reins. He is a mythical leadership hero.
But can he beat McCain in the primary?
Let's do a quick and dirty rundown of the McCain positions for which he is vilified, and see how Rudy compares:
- Moderate on justices: McCain led the charge in the Gang of 14 to come up with a compromise with the Democrats, rather than leading the charge to get conservatives on the bench. Basically, he can't be trusted to fill the Court with strict constructionist justices.
- Giuliani: could be expected to do the same.
- Immigration: McCain has supported the comprehensive approach to immigration reform, which many conservatives view as rewarding those who broke our laws to get into this country.
- Giuliani: as mayor was even softer on immigration than McCain.
- Campaign Finance Reform: McCain wrote the bill that enlarges the government bureaucracy and assails free speech, and simultaneously fails to control the influence of money on politics.
- Giuliani supports the bill and has been willing to attack free speech when it is politically convenient for him.
- Gay Marriage: McCain voted against the federal marriage amendment, and though his official stance was in favor of his state's ban on gay marriage, he refused to campaign for it.
- Giuliani is openly pro-gay marriage.
- Hostile to religious conservatives: McCain blasted the Religious Right after his 2000 primary loss to 43 (something for which I cannot blame him, as I discussed here). Only recently has he begun to play to the Religious Right and court their vote.
- Giuliani: If McCain is not religiously conservative enough, then Rudy must be downright anathema to them.
Is there a conservative candidate out there who can knock off both McCain and Giuliani? Is it Brownback? Doubt it. Is is Huckabee? Who's Huckabee? Is it the stormin' Mormin', Mitt Romney? Likely unelectable.
I am far from suggesting that conservatives suck it up and vote for McCain or Giuliani. My point is simply this: at this point conservatives are faced with a choice: do we want to vote for someone who can win to keep a member of the Trifecta out of office? Or are we to vote our conscience, vote for a true conservative who is less likely to win the general election, and hope to make the GOP more conservative?
Here we are, 14 months from the primaries, and the options are bleak. May things change, and change dramatically.
1 comment:
K.B. It's a great comparison of Rudy and McCain. To echo earlier comments, I support McCain because he is the only one that can beat a Democratic candidate (as I see it, right now, in 2006).
To clarify earlier comments, I will say that McCain is a weak conservative. He is a moderate. As such, he is NOT the ideal candidate for 2008. I believe that and I believe most people here at Voter Vault believe this.
As such, in the primaries, I will not be supporting John McCain, no way, no how.
If he gets the nomination, though: -----> Eventually, we all will have to make the choice in November of 2008. Will conservatives rally around McCain? Will they knock on doors, make phone calls, send emails, and donate lots of money, for John McCain?
I hope so....to keep a Democrat out of the White House. Do we want every single circuit court in the country to be like the San Francisco 9th? No! If a Democrat gets in the White House, they will be. How could you declare the Pledge unconstitutional? Unbelievable. Mark my words, if a Dem gets in the White House, nominations will be made that will dramatically shift the US circuit courts to the left. I would much rather have a Kennedy than a Bader-Ginsberg.
I hate being Booker T. Washington-esque on this (historians, you know what I mean here), but sometimes compromise is better. I have my principles, and McCain shares some, shuns others. But he is better than the alternative...and you know what? That's American politics, that's the way it works in our two party system.
K.B. in your comparison, I choose McCain in the heartbeat...no contest, and I'll tell you why it is NOT a push between the two.
Court: The question is this: Would you give up seven circuit vacancies to get Alito and Roberts on the Supreme Court? If you answered yes, then you're with me. If not, then McCain and Giuliani might be a tie there (even though we know Giuliani is FAR more socially liberal than McCain)
Immigration...probably tied
Camp. Fin....probably tied (btw, I do find McCain-Feingold stupid and unfortunate. I did not mean to lessen its relevance in previous comments)
Gay Marriage...McCain voted for DOMA...Giuliani would not have...case closed.
Religious right… (Although as previously stated, K.B. some of us here do not care for the way that the Religious Right does business)....McCain is making nice though, and so he beats Giuliani here.
Overall, both are not ideal. But the math comes down to this.
McCain > Giuliani
McCain > A Democrat in the White House
Although:
McCain < than most other non-Rudy GOP candidates.
I will not forget that third equation, nor will I forget your questions K.B.
"Do we want to vote for someone
who can win to keep a member
of the Trifecta out of office?
Or are we to vote our
conscience, vote for a true
conservative who is less
likely to win the general
election, and hope to make the
GOP more conservative?"
It is bleak, yes, and prayfully someone will emerge (Huckabee is raising eyebrows for his fundraising prowess) but right now, I lean towards the former. That's me...I'm feeling kind of small picture right now.
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