Primary Assault

Parties hate primaries for many reason, and we are heading headlong into primary season.

Though I would like to see some modifications to our primary system nationwide, there is one major strength the current process possesses: it ensures that the candidate who emerges will be battle-tested by his/her own party. The weakest are weeded out in a rather Darwinian fashion. The strong survive, the weak perish.

That was what was running through my head as I read yet another article about Barack Obama. This article, however, was quite different than any other on the subject. It focused on why Obama might not run. If you have time, I encourage you to read the whole thing. If not, here are some highlights:

• Just as I mentioned in this post, the author notes that "Mr. Obama is also smart enough to know that he has become too popular too quickly. His supporters are doing him a disservice with their indifference to his lack of experience."
• Hillary's side is already preparing Obamattacks against him like "Just a little while ago, he was in Springfield worrying about license-tag fees"
• Obama still represents somewhat of an "empty vessel" into which people are pouring their hopes. Being an empty vessel can very quickly turn into being viewed as an empty suit instead.

The thing that the parties hate most about the primaries is that they are a civil war. One of the huge advantages Bush had over Kerry is that he did not have a primary fight. Kerry emerged early, but nonetheless had been battered by the likes of Dean and Gephardt. Now It's the Democratic trifecta who will beat up on each other for a while. Unless Obama and Hillary come to an agreement to run together (Clinton for Pres. and Obama as VP), this could get ugly. As long as it's a three-way race, Edwards will be forced to play the most agressive, and therefore the most attacking campaign.

There is another big attack line against Obama that will come from the Clinton people, though not from Clinton herself. Hillary has spent the better part of three years running away from the Left and trying to appear moderate. She got herself appointed to the Armed Services Committee to bolster her foreign policy experience. She refused until just this week to bash the Iraq War. She voted for the War to begin with. She has been following the traditional (Bill) Clinton school of politics. Here's where the big attack on Obama will come:

On Obama's liberalism: "The fact that he originally opposed the war in Iraq would help him with primary voters, but it's unclear how many Democrats want to plump for someone who, according to National Journal, has a more liberal voting record than Hillary Clinton. Last year Mr. Obama had a perfect 100% voting record from both the Americans for Democratic Action and the AFL-CIO...[And] his record as a state legislator is even more liberal. In 1996, he spoke out against the Defense of Marriage Act, which the Senate approved 85-14 and Mr. Clinton signed into law. He twice voted "present" on a bill to ban partial-birth abortions. In 1999 he was the only state senator to oppose a law that prohibited early prison release for sex offenders. Is anyone naive enough to believe Mrs. Clinton wouldn't use those positions as evidence that he couldn't win?"

Yes, she can, and yes, she will. "Barack Hussein Obama is too liberal to get elected" will be her rallying cry. That is, unless they form an alliance before that.Obviously, a Clinton-Obama alliance would be horrific for the Red Team. It would merge the star power of the two and further marginalize McCain or (insert seriously-unlikely-to-win-candidate here). Perhaps each of their own political ambitions will prevent such an alliance. Perhaps Clinton will bash him into oblivion. Those, however, seem at this point like wishful thinking.

The most hopeful perspective for those of us on the Right is this scenario: Clinton sees Barack as her only serious competition. She bashes him and bashes him until he approaches her and offers to be her VP. They run together and America is truly opposed to Hillary. Her public image tanks (unlikely, seeing as how she has become so politically skilled), and America votes against her rather than for the Red Team.

Not a great outlook, I know. But lots can change in 22 months. Here's to hoping.

[Editor's Note:If you have not yet, and you have a chance, check out the comments on yesterday's post. Lots of great comments from some really intelligent folks. [End Editor's Note]