Edwards is joining a field that is dominated by political celebrities in Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. While Edwards may fall far short of their celebrity status, he can certainly hold his own among them.Ponder this question for a while: can the GOP match the star power of this Democratic trifecta?
As we sit still over 22 months away from the Presidential election, it appears that no matter who the Red Team fields in '08, he/she will be over matched. Even John McCain, with his strong positioning as a moderate and a war hawk, pails in comparison to the media attention lavished on the Big Three Dems.
To a large degree the media has created these political giants. In the Freakshow age, it is likely that only the media could bring them down. At this point, both Clinton and Edwards are relatively battle-tested. As discussed earlier, Obama is at the mercy of the Freakshow, and sadly could lose control of his public image relatively easily.
Hillary was destroyed by the Freakshow in the early years of Bill Clinton's first term. She led the charge to socialize health care and faced backlash in both the media and the electorate. She became the face of the imposing, big, impersonal, wasteful, socialized government. They even created a word to symbolize the debacle that was her health care initiative: hillarycare.
Having been destroyed in the last decade, she has rebuilt even stronger in this one.
Edwards has never been destroyed by the Freakshow, nor has he been squarely in its sights for any extended period of time. Nevertheless, he has tasted enough of it, and has shown an ability to navigate its minefields. He is silver-tongued and his "Two-Americas" mantra has the ability to be useful in both the primaries and the general election. That is a sing of a quality message, despite the fact that it's loaded with liberal though about how to address that problem.
McCain has a cozy relationship with the media, but with his age, his party affiliation, and his propensity to go against his party just to be the maverick, he is constantly in danger of losing control of his public image to the Freakshow that is the American political culture.
22 months away, but all signs indicate that this election will be fought in the Democratic primary. I hope things change, but the Pretty Pony's entrance into the race is certainly an indication that the Democratic field is jam-packed. The GOP field, on the other hand, is looking pretty sparse.
8 comments:
I didn't get into politics until about 3 years ago. Even now I still feel like I am sheltered from reality.
The next presidental election has me very intrigued. Who is going to represent the Republican party? I really don't feel that there is anyone right now that does it for me. If I had to choose I might Giuliani however he is pro-choice and I don't know if I can handle that, probably not, but this is hypothetical and I haven't really thought about it too much.
Another person who is not a front-runner, that I would be much more favorable to in voting is Newt. Now I know that he has a bad histroy. Well I don't really know because he was in poltics long before I got interested. But I have seen him on talk shows and read some of his stuff and I really like what I hear. I feel that he has a realistic approach and holds strongly to conservative values. So I guess if I now had to choose I would choose Newt.
But I still have 22 months left to decide and if I can change my mind in one post who knows what it will be in 22 months.
If it is allowed, if anyone is still uncertain come election time, you can always write me in.
Gern,
You only have until February 5th, 2008 if your are voting in the Republican primary (only 15 months). This summer is when the real candidates will emerge. As far as Newt and Guilianni compared to McCain, it only gets worse. Guiliani comes with some serious scandal-in-the-making stuff from his divorce. He was going to run for Senate against Hillary in 2000 when he got prostate cancer coincidentally at the same time that his divorce shadyness started to come out. Newt is dead in the water. You are right that he has many good things to say. He might be one of the most thoughtful, intellectually honest conservatives out there, but he comes with a horrible public image from his time as speaker. Other options all have serious problems. I love Mitt Romney, but he's a Mormon, and that will kill his candidacy. Bill Frist will try, but he's as boring as the day is long (though his M.D. will help). All this to say that the Democratic field will have to lose, because I don't see the Republicans winning.
Big Newt fan...wish he could win. Seems to me the primary always has a way of bringing unknowns to the front...my list of potentials:
Mike Huckabee, AR
Mitt Romney, MA
John McCain, AZ
Anyone as excited as I am.....
:(
You say that Newt is dead, but doesn't the American public have a short memory?
Wait, what did I say?
Yes, Baxter, Newt is great, and based on what I've heard him say over the past 2-3 years, I too wish his public image was not shot. Alas, it is. Gern, as to the short memory, Americans truly have it. However, like all maketing gurus know is that even if people forget your commercial, if you engrain your name and positive images into the heads of Joe American, it sticks. You go to the store and without even consciously thinking about it find yourself picking up the Bud Select. Why? Not because you think "oh yeah, I saw that crown commercial--man that made this beer look good--I think I'll buy it". Rather, it's brand imaging. Americans forget the reason why they like or dislike something, but not that they like or dislike it. Things that get branded with a negative image eventually die. That's why companies work so hard to avoid negative publicity. Politics is the same way. Politicians work to build up a strong public image. If they get branded with a negative one it requires an entire re-invention to reverse the process. Hillary has done that. Al Gore has not. John Kerry has not. Both are negative brands. Newt is pushing the same agenda (which I truly like) as he did as speaker. The problem is the Left was able to attach negative branding to him and his ideas. Any mention of Newt to the voting Joe American conjures negative images. Even I, who like Newt, have an image in my mind of Newt looking flustered at Bill Clinton stood up to him and refused to sign a fiscally conservative budget. It was positive branding for Clinton and negative branding for Newt. That image is seered into my head today, and creates a negative vibe when I see or hear Newt. In my humble opinion, that's why he's a non-starter.
Also, Baxter, per your list, I think the only one who even makes it to primary day is McCain. Time will tell, but my bet is Huckabee and Romney don't make it to January of '08.
Gentlemen, you all make fine points. The folks over at RedState seem to despise John McCain, particularly for McCain-Feingold and the Gang of 14, and his supposed moderate stances on gay marriage and abortion.
I generally do not post there very much, but when I do, I have always have to support McCain because as of RIGHT NOW...there is NO OTHER OPTION. Make no mistake about it. Just as K Randolph has so eloquently stated, the Trifecta of Democratic power is making a run at the White House, and there is nary a Republican to stop them…sans John McCain.
People talk about how they are unsure how he will lead. Things that I do know about John McCain and the political situation in 2006.
1. He more of a fiscal conservative than George W. Bush.
2. Guiliani IS for gay marriage, and he IS Pro-Choice. Also, RG will not win New York for the Republicans, and he will not get my vote.
3. Mitt Romney has a conserva-liberal history in Massachusetts, plus he's a Mormon, which will not help whatsoever. Plus he will not win Massachusetts, which could have been a bonus. I'd be open to voting for him, but he will lose.
4. K Randolph, you are right. Newt has a serious image problem which he won't be able to overcome. Just as America will never elect a president named Grover again, they will never elect a Newt for the first time.
5. Brownback won't win. Huckabee is not that well known. The Republican party IS diverse, (despite what Daily Kos rants about on a daily basis) but there are not many women, Hispanics, or African American candidates in the Presidential wading (waiting) pool.
6. Given all of these things, I know that John McCain loved John Roberts and loved Alito's nomination to the Supreme Court...and these are my kind of guys (I think). Redstaters need to calm down about the whole Gang of 14 deal....because I don't care. Yes, 7 judges got denied, but I don't care about Bush's friendly appointees to circuit courts around the country....I want those Supreme Court Justices, and John McCain helped get those two on there.
7. As for abortion, it’s the Supreme Court, stupid. As for gay marriage…same thing. I trust McCain more than Giulliani to make quality picks to the SCOTUS.
8. Arizona will be a swing state in 2008. McCain will win this state. He can make a run at winning the electoral college due to his “moderate” and “maverick” stances.
Those are the things that I know. Knowing those things, I can’t help but support McCain as the next President of the United States because McCain is the best hope for the Republicans in 2008, and unless something changes, he will need to be in the White House in 2009, or else a Democrat will definitely be there.
As of now, by the way, if the Democrat wins, I will say one good thing. There will finally be a woman or an African American in either/both of the offices of President and Vice President. Regardless of politics, I think that it is about time that we have gotten someone besides a white male into one of those offices...it's overdue, and if a Democrat is going to win, I will at least be happy if that has happened.
e11...I can't calm down about McCain, G14 and McCain Feingold..they are egregious mistakes that I cannot stomach. I once loved GWBush…what I didn’t know when I voted for him is that he is a Republican but not a conservative. I thought I was getting Reagan….but what I got was a watered down Bush41. I will not vote for McCain because he too is not a conservative. He sacrificed any mandate an already weak Bush43 had to lead by undercutting anything in the Senate that might be seen as conservative or right wing…why??? Because he loves being a media darling more than he loves being a true blue conservative. Look back at what gets Republicans over 50% of the popular vote…not ruling from the middle and being the guys that all sorts of minorities and others look for…its running as an conservative and rallying the base. Bush 43 fooled us twice that he was indeed a conservative and he received 50% of the vote and the second time (when we really knew he wasn’t conservative…but he still ran successfully as one due to the war) he got 51%. McCain seems like the only choice because that is the way the media has set it up….someone conservative will rise to the challenge…stir the base and take him down…..if not, I would rather not vote with the hope that a defeat will bring about a conservative reaction much like ’94.
PS I know nothing about Huckabee…other than he is a media darling of the south…like Clinton nobody knows who he is…but he speaks with a southern drawl and the southern strategy is a winner for the reds. NE politicians from the Senate are losers from the start. Southern gov...with strong personality is the prototype.
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